Fortress America

By Dr. Harold A. Black
blackh@knoxfocus.com
haroldblackphd.com

It looks like Trump will abandon Ukraine in his pivot toward Russia. That should come as no surprise to the Ukrainians, who are accustomed to being abandoned by the United States and left on their own. From Woodrow Wilson to Yalta, to Bush, Clinton and Obama, the U.S. has lied to Ukraine and/or left it to fend for itself against the Russians, who are brutal masters. Stalin was responsible for 4 million Ukrainian deaths. In this conflict Russians have tortured Ukrainians, killed prisoners, abducted their children and conducted sexual violence against men as well as women and children. It would be irrational for Zelenskyy to accept a peace without security. Is Ukraine simply going to abandon Luhansk and Donetsk like they abandoned Crimea? Remember, those areas contain 40% of Ukraine’s mineral wealth.

I would be shocked if Ukraine isn’t developing its own nuclear weapons after foolishly abandoning them at Clinton’s urging. There is no way Ukraine will accept Russian dominance. Ukraine is not going to join NATO but look to it joining the EU. If Trump doesn’t compel Ukraine to continue pivoting toward Europe, then nothing will. But a nuclear Ukraine is necessary to keep the Russian bear away from their throats.

Why can’t Europe broker a deal? Brussels was left out of the negotiating table in the talks between Russia and the U.S. But it is clear that Ukraine would never accept a deal hammered out with those two, given that it doesn’t trust either. It would be fitting if the U.S. were left out of these negotiations. Ukraine should offer to pay the U.S. for replacement parts and upkeep on the material it has and pay for anything in the future.

Some observers have posited that if the U.S. abandons Ukraine, then Russia will be emboldened to invade other countries. I think the chance of this is virtually zero. Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, thinking that it would take only a week or so to subdue the country. Surprise! Russia is a weak, big, bad bully with only its nukes to try to scare its opponents into submission. If Russia did decide to invade the Baltic states, it would probably get its butt kicked again. Since Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are members of NATO, then NATO would come to their defense. Don’t look for the U.S. to join them. Trump’s America is not going to be drawn into any foreign wars.

The bigger threat is that the Chinese may be emboldened to attack Taiwan. We should make sure that such an invasion will be even more costly to the Chinese than Ukraine is to the Russians. I would arm the Taiwanese to the teeth with air and sea defenses. I would sell them all the missiles and jets they need for their defense and for offense against the Chinese mainland. If all this were put in place, the Chinese would have second thoughts about an invasion. I would threaten to put a 1000% tariff on all Chinese goods and services worldwide if they did not stop their aggression in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan.

Trump is an isolationist. He could start winding down the U.S. military around the world. He is building a fortress America. To wit: “We will leave you alone so long as you leave us alone. But mess with us and all hell will rain down on you.” We no longer have any allies and precious few friends. If the politicians home and abroad say otherwise, they are lying.

Trump is upending trade agreements and military alliances and pulling the country back within our own borders. It is not just America First. It is America Only. If Trump and his minions stay in power going into the future – which I doubt – I can see an America with zero alliances. The rest of the world can have its territorial disputes, fight its wars and have their own alliances. Just leave us out of it. The percent of U.S. trade to GDP is around 25%. I think Trump would be happy to cut that to zero. Tell companies that they can only sell in America what they make in America. No more iPhones from China. No more avocados from Mexico. No more imported cars and trucks from Canada. No more imported anything. It would make us poorer. It would be a different America. But theoretically, it could be done.