The Coming Trump Recession
By Dr. Harold A. Black
blackh@knoxfocus.com
haroldblackphd.com
If Trump loves tariffs so, then why doesn’t he use them to try to alter Chinese behavior? I don’t mean this piddling 10% increase either. China is a bad actor. It is the source of fentanyl. It is rattling its swords in the South China Sea. It continues to threaten Taiwan. If Trump told China that he was going to impose a 1,000% levy on all Chinese imports if they didn’t quit the fentanyl trade, the threats in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan, I bet that would get their attention. Do it.
Stop with the Trump worship already! One lawmaker wants Trump’s face chiseled into Mount Rushmore. Another wants to make his birthday a federal
holiday. Still, another wants to change the name of Washington Dulles Airport.
Tennessee’s Andy Ogles wants to amend the Constitution to allow only presidents who have served nonconsecutive terms to seek a third term. Hello, Donald Trump. Hello, Grover Cleveland. What about adding his likeness to Mount Rushmore? What about renaming Greenland as “Red, White and Blue land?” Mark Alford (R, Mo.) has proposed Feb. 9 as “Gulf of America Day.” Some have even talked about renaming their state as “The State of Donald Trump”! How about Trump City, Tennessee? One of my granddaughters is named Reagan. Pity the poor child who is named “Trump.” Good grief!
All this embarrassing (though not to Trump) hero worship will quickly vanish if Trump’s policies result in this country going into a recession. Trump’s tariff war is not confined to Mexico, Canada and China. It is with the entire world. He has threatened Europe, the BRICs countries and anyone that trades with America with tariffs. Increased tariffs in the past have led to job loss in the United States and for our trading partners. He wants the Fed to ward off any recession by lowering interest rates and goosing up the money supply. This is a toxic mix that will lead to an inflationary recession. The Fed will not go along if there is increased inflation. When (not if) all of this occurs, then even the biggest Trump apologists will regret all the adoration that they are lavishing on him.
Canada is matching Trump’s tariffs and Trump has caused the polls in Canada to swing wildly. A month ago, the conservatives were 20 points ahead of the liberals, with elections coming due to Trudeau’s resignation. Now the liberals are 2 points ahead. Trump’s saying that he was going to use tariffs to force Canada to become the 51st state has engendered latent patriotism and a massive pushback. Trump said, “Tariffs will make it impossible for them to sell cars … lumber or anything else in the U.S.” and “If we don’t support them, they don’t subsist as a nation.” Mark Carney, the leader of Canada’s liberals, has said that Trump’s threats are “one of the greatest crises in our history. I know how to manage crises, I know how to build strong economies.” So, thank Trump for the resurgence of the liberals.
And mind you, these are our friends. Or should I say, these used to be our friends. Then what about our trading partner to the south? All the forecasts are for Mexico to go into a significant recession if hit by Trump’s tariffs. Trump obviously expects them to knuckle under, but their socialist president is adamant that they won’t. Trump wants Mexico to do more to stop the illegals and the flow of fentanyl. If not, then Pete Hegseth is reported to have told Mexico’s military leaders that the United States is prepared to take unilateral military action. What!? I thought that Trump was no neocon. Is Hegseth saying that Trump will use the US military to go into Mexico to deal with the cartels? He can’t be serious. There is no way that Mexico will stand to see its sovereignty threatened by a U.S. invasion. Will this be Trump’s Afghanistan and will the American people stand for it? What in the wide world of sports is going on? OK Andy Ogles, still want to kiss Trump’s ring?
Anyway, I thought China was the source of all things fentanyl? That’s even more reason for a 1,000% tariff.
