Why did Putin invade Ukraine?

By Dr. Harold A. Black
blackh@knoxfocus.com
haroldblackphd.com

I was wondering why Putin invaded Ukraine. It was obvious that he was going to do so. You don’t amass 200,000 troops on the Ukraine border just to have a parade. Putin made noises about annexing the two Russian-speaking provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and supporting their insurgents during the buildup. Putin was emboldened by Russia’s seizing of Crimea in 2014 without hardly a peep from the West or resistance from Ukraine. Although some pointed to the seizure as a result of Crimean residents wanting to reunite with Russia, the main reason was to keep the Black Sea port of Sevastopol. This gave the Russian navy access to the Mediterranean. Some say that Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO. If that were the case, then why didn’t it invade Finland? Some say that Putin was trying to reclaim the borders of the old Soviet Union. So why didn’t he annex Belarus? Others say that Russia considers Ukraine as part of Russia and not a separate country, yet the Ukrainians have a separate language and culture.

I have never believed any of this. I am an economist so I looked for economic reasons for Russia to invade Ukraine. If Russia annexed Crimea for military reasons, then it likely wanted the rest of Ukraine for reasons other than unifying Russian speakers. First, they probably perceived that Ukraine was weak and they could annex it as easily as Crimea. Second, they thought that the Russian speakers would rebel against Ukraine. Third, they were greedy.

Russia invaded because Ukraine is rich in agricultural and mineral resources. Ukraine is called the breadbasket of Europe – while Russia is simply a basket case. Ukraine has some of the world’s most fertile land and is one of the world’s largest exporters of grain. More than 70% of the country is agricultural. It is the world’s largest producer of sunflowers and sunflower oil. It is a major producer of barley, wheat, corn, rye, soybeans and potatoes. Obviously, the war has adversely affected food production with prices increasing for agricultural produce. However, isn’t it interesting that Russia has an agreement with Ukraine to keep the safe transport of produce out of Ukraine? If Russia had blockaded agricultural exports, experts said that there would have been a food crisis in much of Africa and parts of Asia. That would have turned those countries, some of whom are Russian allies, against the invasion.

Although Ukraine being an agricultural giant is well known, less well known is that the country is rich in other resources. The country is a mineral superpower, home of some of the largest reserves of vital minerals. The US says that of 50 minerals that are vital to its national security, Ukraine has ample supplies of 22 of them. In fact, Ukraine has large reserves of 117 of the 120 most vital minerals in the world. Iron ore, graphite, shale gas, uranium, lithium, manganese and others are in Ukraine valued in excess of $26 trillion. Ukraine also has offshore hydrocarbon deposits, oil and natural gas. It has coal reserves valued at over $20 trillion along with deposits of cobalt, copper, beryllium, nickel and tin. Russia wants these riches.

I may be naïve with regard to foreign affairs but the agriculture, the minerals and the energy reserves are reasons enough for Russia to try to seize control of all of Ukraine. I wonder why this has been ignored in the press. Moreover, we keep hearing that we have no strategic interest in Ukraine so why should we keep supplying them with weapons? One very strategic reason is not to let the country’s riches fall into the hands of the Russians.

Since we have supported Ukraine with over $200 billion in arms and supplies, I would be disappointed if Trump didn’t continue to support Ukraine and establish a significant trade agreement with it. Rather than continuing to be dependent upon China for rare earth materials, we could trade with Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine could replace China as the major source of minerals for green energy. Trump loves tariffs but a free trade agreement with Ukraine makes a lot of sense. It would be foolish if we didn’t seek to end this war with a trade agreement that would benefit America.